To recap, the NPL Victoria format this season will see the bottom two teams (13th and 14th) automatically relegated to NPL 1 in 2016. In NPL 1, each top team in East and West will be automatically promoted. The second placed teams will then playoff against each other for a crack at the 12th placed NPL club. We take a look at the teams involved in the 2015 promotion/relegation battle.
NPL
With 11th placed Oakleigh Cannons sitting 11 points ahead of the relegation-threatened pack of North Geelong, Werribee City and Dandenong Thunder – who all incredibly sit on 15 points each – it is inevitable that two of the bottom three will be relegated.
North Geelong Warriors
Ladder: 12th, 15 points, -27 goal difference
Form: LWWLD
To play: Dandenong Thunder (H), Werribee City (A)
Verdict: With the best goal difference of the three, and still to face both Werribee and Dandenong in relgation six pointers, the Warriors are perhaps the best placed side to avoid automatic relegation. After occupying last spot for long spells this season, they may just end up earning another shot at the top flight.
Werribee City
Ladder: 13th, 15, -29
Form: LLLLW
To play: Oakleigh Cannons (A), North Geelong Warriors (H)
Verdict: The Bees looked dead and buried after a wretched losing streak, but a win against Northcote last week kept their slim hopes alive. A win against the enigmatic Oakleigh would really shake things up for the club still recovering from Nino Ragusa’s departure.
Dandenong Thunder
Ladder: 14th, 15, -33
Form: LLLDW
To play: North Geelong (A), Heidelberg United (A)
Verdict: With the worst goal difference and two difficult away trips coming up, it could be curtains in 2015 for the 2012 VPL champions. But the determination to stay in the top flight may just spur the proud club to a winning run.
NPL 1 East
NPL 1 looks somewhat wrapped up by Melbourne Victory, but we’ll know more this weekend as they face off against second placed Richmond, who will also be hoping to kick a bit further clear of Kingston City. While not on the list, Box Hill and Eastern Lions are also within reaching distance of the top four.
Melbourne Victory
Ladder: 1st, 51, +48
Form: LWWDW
To play: Richmond, Kingston, Moreland City, Murray, Box Hill
Verdict: Looking fairly safe for promotion being six points and a ridiculous goal difference ahead of the competition, though the next two games will be pivotal. And we haven’t seen actual evidence yet that prevents Victory from being promoted.
Richmond
Ladder: 2nd, 45, +12
Form: WLLWW
To play: Victory (H), Murray (A), Sunshine (A), Box Hill (A), Springvale (A)
Verdict: A run of away games to end the season, though against beatable teams, including three that definitely won’t be gunning for promotion. Second place really should be the aim.
Kingston City
Ladder: 3rd, 41, +12
Form: LWLL*
To play: *Moreland City (A) (catch up game), Goulburn Valley (A), Victory (H), Melbourne City (H), Dandenong City (H), Murray (A)
Verdict: With a game in hand, a win against Moreland City is a must win. The current four point gap is made more imposing by the fact the next four clashes will be against top-half clubs.
Goulburn Valley Suns
Ladder: 4th, 38, +17
Form: WLLWL
To play: Kingston (H), Dandenong City (H), Bulleen Lions (H), Nunawading City (A), Eastern Lions (H)
Verdict: A good goal difference helps. However, a mixed bag of fixtures will see the likes of Kingston and Bulleen surrounding Nunawading, though with a generous run of home games. But seven points away from Richmond may just be too big a gap.
NPL 1 West
The race in the West is wild. Only five points separate second and sixth place, and Bulleen aren’t exactly home yet with a fairly difficult final five games.
Bulleen Lions
Ladder: 1st, 48, +23
Form: DWDWW
To play: Melbourne City (H), St Albans (H), Goulburn Valley (A), Ballarat (H), Moreland City (A)
Verdict: The eight point lead safeguards Bulleen from a run home against every team that’s currently still in with promotion chance.
Moreland Zebras
Ladder: 2nd, 40, +23
Form: LDWLL
To play: Bendigo City (H), Brunswick City (A), Murray United (H), Melbourne City (H), Ballarat (A)
Verdict: Goal difference is a big advantage, but their recent stuttering form isn’t. The next three games should really yield nine points and put pressure on the teams around them, setting up a grandstand finish.
Ballarat Red Devils
Ladder: 3rd, 39, +15
Form: WWWWW
To play: Brunswick City (H), Melbourne City (H), Box Hill United (A), Bulleen (A), Moreland Zebras (H)
Verdict: Obviously in top form, but have benefited from playing the likes of Nunawading, Bendigo and Springvale. The big test will come in the final four games, which may prove too difficult.
Melbourne City
Ladder: 4th, 38, +10
Form: WLDWW
To play: Bulleen, Ballarat, Kingston, Moreland Zebras, Sunshine
Verdict: A tough run home, including against the West’s current top three, may make promotion just out of reach this year.
St Albans Saints
Ladder: 5th, 37, +16
Form: WDLLL
To play: Whittlesea (A), Bulleen (A), Nunawading (H), Moreland City (H), Bendigo (A)
Verdict: Were equal 2nd less than a month ago with a six-point gap on fourth. Then defeats against the likes of Sunshine and Murray – the latter in contentious circumstances – in recent weeks undid them. A somewhat generous run home gives the opportunity to make a final tilt at promotion, but hard to say what effect Joe Kovacevic’s departure will have on the club.
Moreland City
Ladder: 6th, 36, +4
Form: DLWW*
To play: *Kingston (H), Sunshine (A), Whittlesea (H), Victory (H), St Albans (A), Bulleen (H)
Verdict: The extra game helps, but two games against Victory and Bulleen don’t. Neither does the low goal difference, which could prove to be their undoing.
